Minus Ten Review -34

Fork swapping continued. Here is a 420mm axle to crown fork on the Blackbuck

Ten years ago here on the blog I was talking about many things that have come to pass or have been proven to be flashes in the pan. One thing I'll share today is an example to us now that history is repeating itself.

The stage racing, ultra-distance unpaved bicycle thing was really just taking off ten years ago. While there had always been events of this ilk, the social media/internet factor wasn't present and in 2008, lots of folks were looking for something other than a criterium or mountain bike race to test their mettle. (Okay, triathlon was a part of this, but that's more than just cycling) I predicted that bicycle companies would begin to cater to this trend, and of course, you know now that has happened. I was "in the know" about what Salsa Cycles was up to, but I saw that and knew it would not stop with them.

Another thing I always was sure would happen was that 29"er wheels would supplant the then dominant standard of 26 inch wheels. 27.5"ers eventually sealed the deal on 26"ers, but it was going to happen anyway. So, I was excited for the 2008 Interbike, which I felt would help propel 29"ers into the mainstream, and you know what happened after that.

Interestingly, this was also about when Interbike, and trade shows in general, took a step backward from prominence and slowly faded into obscurity within the next five years. 2007-2008 was about when the pendulum swung back, in my estimation. Those first Interbike shows I went to for "Twenty Nine Inches" were really quite crazy busy. Not so much in the years afterward.

The Blackbuck here with a rare Willits WOW fork. I traded the fork years later for fat bike rims.

Finally, I reported on a trend ten years ago which the bicycling industry was hot on which doesn't hardly move the needle now. It is a great example of what is going on right now with e-bikes. Here's what I wrote ten years ago concerning the hot trend of "urban bikes":

"With the "trade show season" upon us, there is always speculation that something really big is going to be shown that will blow us all away. You know, "The Next Big Thing". Who knows what that will be, or even if it will be.

Last year it was "urban bikes", this year it could be that again. Commuter/urban/fixie/utility rigs that people think are going to "save the planet"."

And that trend died right after this. Where do you even see fixies being sold in the numbers they once were? Another great example is the QBP brand "All City". An urban, hipster moniker if there ever was one for a bike company. Well, they hit the scene ten years ago with a suite of fixie parts and then they came out with some crazy urban rigs. Good stuff, but the trend was dying. All City pretty much has abandoned their fixie roots for all-road and classic style cycling trends. 

All this to point out that there are many e-bike players and only so many customers. There will be a tipping point with e-bikes where the folks that have them won't be in the market anymore and over-production will rear its ugly head. Then......the inevitable. The cycling world will then be on the lookout for whatever "The Next Big Thing" is. You know,  instead of promoting a certain type of bicycle, the industry needs to promote a reason for riding, places to do that which are safe, and the rest will follow. Make it fun, authentic, and safe. Not centered around a type of bicycle.