So, How Did I Do?

From Gravel Worlds 2021

I was researching material for another of my posts in the "GTDRI Stories" series when I ran across a post I wrote in 2018 that I found interesting. I sometimes randomly will go through most of a year's worth of posts when I am researching something on the blog, so this isn't a random activity. But when you've written 6,836 posts, (as of this writing), I don't think anyone would blame me if I forgot I had made a post predicting what would happen in the gravel scene in 2018. 

Well, I did that, and so let's see how I did with my prognostications. For context, this was later in the same year that I stopped doing Trans Iowa as an event and I was planning on doing the C.O.G. 100 Iowa Single Speed Championship event with N.Y. Roll. 

The post, (you can read it in its entirety HERE), is not without its flaws, and I will cover that as we get into it today. But I did nail some things. What I will do is I will take each point I made one-by-one and comment on that from my perspective today. 

The prediction will be lifted verbatim from the text and printed in bold Italics, so you'll know what is from then and what is my reaction today. Okay? Let's have some fun, shall we? 

1. "My feeling is that many events are going to see Pro level teams ..." That has kind of come true, but we're still in the midst of that happening. I read just last week where Specialized is forming a Pro gravel team around a Pro racer who recently retired from the Pro peloton . I suspect that other Pro Gravel teams will start popping up. The women's side has them already. On the men's side you have Team Jukebox Racing, but again - I think this is still being developed yet as an idea. 

There still are a lot of independent, sponsored racers yet in gravel, so I would give myself a "half-right" score here. 

2. "...more Pro level riders..." Totally nailed this. There is evidence that we will see even more Pro participation in 2024. 

3. "...Pro only gravel racing in the near future." Again, 100% nailed it. 2023 saw not only the first USAC Gravel National Championships, but the second Gravel World Championships held by the UCI. While there were "under-cards" for the age categories at the Gravel World Championships, the Pro racing, at least for the Pro Males, was separated from the rest. Same was true for the Unbound (formerly DK200) event in Emporia Kansas in June, the first time the Pros had separate starts from the mass field ever in that event. 

4. "There will be a national points series started by........someone". Yep! The Life Time Grand Prix is that series, although they mixed in some MTB events in there as well. There will likely be a USAC equivalent at some point, but that has yet to be formulated. While my feeble mind was only thinking about the US here, it is actually true that there are national points series for gravel racing in some other parts of the world, notably in Finland and Sweden. Half a point here for this one.

5. "There will be more purse money". And yes, again I called it. Big money is being offered at events like the Life Time Grand Prix, the Belgian Waffle Ride series of events, and others. Even smaller gravel events are ponying up some significant dollars for top finishers. 

 6. "There will be super-high end racing bikes.." Yet again, I nailed this. Gravel racing bikes often top out now at well over 10K. "Inevitable", I said back then, and that has panned out. 

7. "...they won't be festooned with braze ons nor will they take 650B wheels and tires." True, and it should be noted that what I was getting at with this and the previous point was that "gravel bikes" which were more about utility and adventure then, were becoming "road racing bikes", just with bigger tires. Also true. 

8. "There will be team pits, as in cyclo cross, where wheels and bikes can be swapped out since team cars on gravel roads is......stupid". Whiffed! I still think this will happen though. Especially at the USAC/UCI level. Point deducted! 

9. "Most races will be between 1K and 2K in distance". I meant to type "100K and 200K", but I didn't, so while the intention was spot-on, I get this one wrong. Deduct a point! But yeah, that's where the UCI is going and a lot of current 100-ish milers fall into this category as well. 

10. "There will be big time endemic media saying they know all about this stuff." And y'all know THAT is a slam dunk. No need to say anything more about that.

Me riding at the 2021 Gravel Worlds. Image by Michael McColgan

So, no real point to all of this other than to say that it was a fun exercise to see how I did with those predictions from five years ago. Also, isn't it interesting to consider how much has changed in five years with a two year hiatus stuck in between due to a world-wide pandemic? That's nuts. 

By the way, I used these images from the 2021 Gravel Worlds not to "pick on that event" at all, but as a way of reminder that registration for the 2024 running of that event is open now.  

UPDATED 4:25pm, 11/22/23: I saw an article on cyclingnews.com regarding more professional riders doing gravel. (point #2 above) Here's a quote I pulled from the article. 

 "We view these events as North America's Classics,” he told Cyclingnews, adding they could be the first UCI road team committed to sending squads of four to five riders to gravel races."