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Thursday, November 09, 2023

What Will The "Post-Gravel" Era Look Like?

A week or so ago N.Y. Roll asked a question during the recording of the "Guitar Ted Podcast" concerning the post-gravel era when he said, "Are we seeing the end of the Age of Gravel?" 

I found that question to be particularly intriguing. I am a strong believer that there are the beginnings and endings of things. Sometimes you see a cyclical, rise and fall, thing happening with trends and styles, but mainly, it is more of a beginning, middle period, and an ending. 

N.Y. Roll also mentioned in our latest recording (which you can listen to HERE) that we may not know when we are off the "peak of gavel" until after about three years, in his estimation. Hmm..... Okay. Let's assume that's about right for argument's sake. 

In the beginnings of this "Modern Day Gravel" era, we didn't have anything "gravel specific" at all. N.Y. Roll likes to say that we were in a "discovery phase" back then, and I cannot say he's wrong about that. So, it is easy to say we were at "the beginning" then, right? 

Then we had a period of growth, events came on line, more people were showing up to these events and then the cycling industry kicked into gear with gravel specific things about ten years ago now. People became less and less reliant on "self-discovery" and more and more it became an experience you "bought into". Things that were once a conundrum, (how to set up non-tubeless touring tires as tubeless, route discovery, bike choice) were now on a checklist to be procured at your local bike shop or online retailer. 

There were "bucket-list" events, Pros started showing up, prize money went up, and big corporations came in like Life Time Fitness, and even the highest form of competitive bicycle racing has a "world championships". Social media is flooded with gravel-this, gravel that to the point that it becomes white noise. 

"Peak Gravel" anyone?

There isn't anywhere else for "gravel" to go once it permeates everything.

I would submit that , yes, we have reached "Peak Gravel". When the genre has nowhere else to go in terms of reach, well....you are there, my friend!

So, I think it is safe to say that now we're on the backside of gravel cycling's growth curve. How will that look? Well, I think that in terms of cycling, we are in a depressed state, economically, right now. So, it is hard to say with any clarity what will happen right now without another form of cycling to come in and fill the void which will be left as gravel cycling declines in popularity. 

And make no mistake, gravel cycling cannot continue to grow forever, and it won't reach a plateau and stay there either. Evidence is all around us right now that supports this theory. People are selling gravel bikes and stating that they don't ride them, or that the niche of gravel is not for them. Sure....you are going to have that with any type of cycling. I understand that, but you gotta figure that the amount of folks that bought a gravel bike that are selling them off now have a certain element within that subgroup that came out a bit disillusioned with gravel cycling.  

Image courtesy of the Flint Hills Ultra Gravel Tour

There are splinters off the gravel scene proper which also may give us some clues as to what people will gravitate toward in the future. One of those activities is "touring/bikepacking". (Same thing?) Routes are popping up that cater to the gravel cyclist that can be done in a weekend or over several weeks and everything in between. Sites like Gravel Kansas are being populated with curated routes that have a story and historically significant landmarks to discover. I suspect that other states and counties may follow suit with this idea.

We even talked about this on the latest "Guitar Ted Podcast" with Bryan Hansel, a landscape photographer that lives in Northern Minnesota. He discovered an off-road vehicle route being proposed by the Minnesota DNR and went ahead and rode it recently. "Adventure by Bike", a concept initiated by Jason Boucher at Salsa Cycles, may actually make headway as an "alternative gravel style" via bikepacking routes across various states. 

Of course, traditional forms of cycling could certainly make comebacks. I feel that mountain biking is due for a bit of a renaissance. Same for road cycling, but on a much less popular stage due to the inherent risks involving motor vehicle/distracted driver issues. 

Those are my thoughts, but what about you? Have we reached "Peak Gravel"? What will be the "post-gravel" cycling form of choice? Let me know in the comments. 

Thanks for reading Guitar Ted Productions.

10 comments:

  1. The reason I say, wait a bit, and use 3 years for a time to look back is simple. We may feel we climbed this single mountain called the gravel experience. We may be at a false summit right now. I am wondering what new technology could get thrown in to this experience that we did not anticipate? Think about computers and where they were and are now? Where will computers end up at? We always evolve things, and maybe just maybe gravel stays simple, and may be the trend becomes to stay simple? Or possibly gravel goes into the new wheel diameter phase and breathes even more life into like 29ers did for mountain biking? I do not know, but I am not willing to commit to a definitive stance till we have information. I like data..

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  2. I think you may be right, Brother… I don’t think this is a ‘technology issue’. I have several friends who have sworn off gravel and sold off their bikes because they simply like riding singletrack better. It’s no more, no less than that. I admit I like singletrack better too, but I also like riding gravel out to singletrack and hitting it… or riding to another destination and checking it out. That’s primo gravel for me.

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  3. I've been riding gravel for years and over the last couple years I cut back quite a bit.

    2 years ago the county directly north of my house changed to rather large gravel in the spring. Very uncomfortable to ride on and takes months to get comfortably ridable.

    The county to the south stayed with "normal" gravel so was better. This limited the routes to the south, mostly.

    However, this spring the very large farm equipment left tread tracks on the gravel (per normal) and I think due to the drought they never really disappeared for a long time. The large farm equipment also is so wide and has dual wheels that it will leave tracks across most of the road. The center track can be smoothed out by cars, but I feel we should right right.

    So a lot of the gravel roads around me are ridable, but not really enjoyable riding. Hence more time on hard surface roads.

    I could see these types of changes to the gravel roads culminating in less gravel riding.

    matt

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  4. @MG - Thanks for that perspective, Brother! I see a lot of folks gravitating back to single track, and it's good. I try to enjoy both things here.

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  5. @matt - I hear that. If you've been reading the blog here lately you know how I've complained about the chunky gravel South of my city while North has been much better. I can see where such coarse gravel could put someone off to riding gravel.

    That said, wider, more voluminous tires are a great cure for that sort of problem. True- not everyone can afford to have multiple bikes, but a nice XC-ish hard tail MTB that can handle 2.4"ers would go a long way toward making rough gravel rideable again. Of course, you have to have the motivation to want to do something about the problem first. If it is easier to go ride pavement, then at least you are riding.

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  6. GT - I ended up going full fat this summer when I rode gravel. It was ok for the chunky stuff, but the washboard still was irritating. Add in the speed penalty and it just wasn't as fun.

    matt

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  7. I'd say that the peak of gravel, in terms of gravel's true ethos and reason for being rediscovered, has already passed us by. If the age of gravel is going to be judged in terms of money and popularity as the determining factor of when it "peaked" I think we missed the boat on what gravel riding is and what it was what it was 5 or 10 years ago. The advancements in bikes and gear has been nice but at what cost? I didn't get on the gravel train right away and came into it around 2015 but even as a relative latecomer I can see the changes. I remember low key, low cost (sometimes zero cost) gravel events where you likely knew or had heard of everyone racing it... hell you could probably fit the entire field in a school bus. I get why prices are going up and why some feel like gravel is progressing but is it progressing into exactly what we all wanted to get away from in the first place... had it already surpassed that point? I think maybe it has and that might be helping to persuade early gravel adopters to get off the train in mass now.

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  8. @Rydn9ers - Thanks for that comment. I was struck most by this:

    "... some feel like gravel is progressing but is it progressing into exactly what we all wanted to get away from in the first place."

    I think that was the fear of many of us early adopters going into gravel. That at some point "gravel" would turn into the same thing XC racing and crit racing was then and still is now. So, from that viewpoint, your comment hits me where I am at with things.

    I also think that this is what will motivate the "post-gravel" era. People will gather in smaller groups than what events are drawing, and do rides for experiences in beautiful/remote/rural places. Kind of like those last Guitar Ted Death Rides. No entry fees, a higher social element, and shared experiences.

    I also am reminded by your handle of how 29 inch bikes once represented a group of riders that were not racers, but enthusiasts, and perhaps a bit of a "rebel cause" was also a part of those early 29"er adopters. But then 29 inch wheels became the darling of racers, and eventually they became "just bikes" as everyone had one by 2012. I see "gravel" in a similar light.

    Once a trend reaches ubiquity, it no longer is a trend, but "just a normal activity" and many people tend to get disinterested in "normal" after a while. I feel "gravel" has already reached that point.

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  9. Really dug this week's episode, and especially the shoutout to the Trans Wisconsin. I believe that was 2008 and those guys followed the Trans Wisconsin Adventure Trail, which is a dual sport motorcycle route. I'll let you work out that acronym yourselves.

    My pal Frank Hassler has been doing yeoman's work on RWGPS, adding a bunch of single track and refining the route in general:

    https://ridewithgps.com/routes/41202188

    It starts in Hazel Green, which is indeed in the Driftless, and yes, lots of pavement down there. The first really worthwhile gravel is at about mile 70 but Good 'Nuf Hollow Road is really, really worthwhile. I think it has at least 3 water crossings.

    One of the few early unofficial accounts of doing that route that I know is still online is on Frank's blog from 2011:

    http://frankonabike.blogspot.com/2011/07/

    ....aaand a guy named Scott Heroldson documented his experience riding it in 2023:

    https://issuu.com/wisconsinbikefed/docs/2023_wibikefed_rideguide

    Good stuff.

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  10. @Michael Lemberger - Heya! Great to hear from you again.

    Thank you for all that information. I'll check that out again. It's been a long time since I have read Charlie Farrow's accounting of that route and since I've heard David Pals' talking about his experiences on the route.

    Cheers!

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