The State Of The Gravel Scene: 2024

 In January 2018 I posted a five part series on what I thought was the "State Of The Gravel Grinding Scene". It really is a retrospective/editorial piece, I suppose, since it does present the historical background of what I term as "modern day gravel racing and riding", which I hold to have begun when Trans Iowa kicked off in 2004.

Now, a whole six years later, things have radically changed in the gravel scene. What is more, things are set to change even more in 2024 and beyond. This post seeks to lay out what I think will happen based upon my observations and from where we are now at the end of 2023. 

Remember- THIS IS MY OPINION. Your thoughts and views on the matter may be quite different. I welcome any reasoned and considered opinions which you can share with me at g.ted.productions@gmail.com. 

The State of the Gravel Scene: 2024 -

 Throughout the last half of 2023 it kept occurring to me that we were now reaching a time which could be defined as "post-gravel" when it comes to the "Gravel Scene", such as it is. My co-host on the Guitar Ted Podcast, N.Y. Roll, says we have plateaued. I think both things are true going into 2024. 

To see this we have to rise above all the discussions about Pro racers, men and women wanting different start times, equity in access, and all the rest of that, and look at a bigger picture. When we take in the gravel cycling scene from that perspective what we see is a sport that has permeated every facet of cycling you can think of. Even parts of road cycling and mountain biking are now represented as "gravel cycling". 

Every form and type of competition in cycling is being contested on gravel now. Yes, even time trials, triathlon, and circuit racing. Marathons, team racing, 24hr gravel races, and more are all represented now in 2024. 

The hardware is covered here as well. Full-suspension gravel bikes? Done! That was five years ago now! The latest craze in gravel cycling is full-aero and electrified. Big tires? Yes.You name it, gravel cycling has got it now. 

Another thing N.Y. Roll often says, and I think it is 100% true, and that is all the pioneering is over. We've been there, done that. All the problems have been figured out for you. So, as an example, when we see people throwing fits about muddy roads in gravel races we roll our eyes. This is not new anymore and people can easily research what has happened at gravel events these days. Race reports, blogs, Instagram, Facebook, and more all depict every possible form of road conditions at events. If you don't know about 'something', you just are not trying. I mean, the information is out there. Everywhere.

So, the book has been written, and the sport of gravel riding is now not going to have much more to add to its book other than more of the same. As long as new people keep showing up, taking on challenges, or try to squeeze a living out of cycling on unpaved surfaces, "Gravel" will plod along. I wouldn't expect any real innovations, changes, or huge growth now going forward. 

Sites like Gravel Kansas will help enhance the gravel experience

A Shift In Focus:

It is my opinion that a shift in focus from doing 'traditional' gravel events to doing independent, group and solo excursions on curated routes will start to be a more popular thing to do. We see things like "Gravel Kansas", a site that has several gravel routes with stories and history attached, springing up. The "Great Plains Gravel Route", a sort of gravel sister to "Tour Divide", should become available as a route soon. We see the Spinistry, a Texas based gravel cycling club, doing long gravel routes like their cross-Texas RAT 1000 route. 

Another shift in the gravel scene has been the growth in weekly group rides held all across the nation. These have grown in popularity due to their non-race pace, social focus, and free-to-engage entry. Personally I have heard about several of these group rides with weekly attendance into the triple digits of riders.

More and more, riders are choosing socially centered group gravel rides.

Going Back To Road/MTB: 

 I suspect that wherever there are remote roads to be ridden, the group rides and more socially driven events will flourish. But there is an undercurrent to all of this that points to a bit of regression, I think. 

There are a lot of people who have tried "gravel cycling" out, they bought the bike, and then found that they just weren't turned on by that type of riding. That or they found that "gravel" doesn't exist where they live and a road or MTB bike serves them better. Some folks miss that single track, or that fast-paced peloton feel, and so the gravel bike gets sold and they leave the scene. 

So, while I don't think that MTB or road riding is "the next big thing", I think that because gravel was touted as "the next big thing" there are going to be more than a few folks who find that gravel cycling isn't what they wanted after all. 

Post-Gravel or Plateau? 

I can see it going either way. The alternative, unpaved cycling choices, I think, will only increase, so I think one could say that in 2024 we will see a shift in how we do gravel cycling more so than we will see a decrease in participation overall. As an example, prices for events, which keep increasing, and in some cases help fund prizing for semi-pro and Pro riders, will turn off more people and drive them towards these group rides and bikepacking/touring/camping style rides. 

And at some point events will start drying up. Making money at events will be increasingly more difficult as competitive dates for rider's to consider are now going to mean that choosing where to go to race may decide the fates of many events. We've already seen this happening, by the way. The calendar of events is ridiculous, and it isn't getting any easier to navigate.

This is a function of over-saturation and - in my view - this is a sign of a "post-gravel" era. The same sort of over-saturation in media and marketing will start to have less of an effect on riders who are already tuning out. Marketing will look for alternatives to gravel, and they already are. You'll know it when they latch on to whatever is deemed "The Next Big Thing" because it will become all you'll read and see.

Creating new routes to be toured, or raced for "FKT"'s will increase.

On the other hand, top-level, gravel surfaced racing by professional and semi-professional cyclists will be on the increase. This will initially be seen as "good". But eventually it will result in more expensive new bikes, events, and it will alienate a large base of the cycling public.

It isn't the late 1990's or early 2000's anymore and what professional racing cyclists are doing is not having that same "Lance-effect" that it had 25 years ago. It used to be that riding what the Pro's rode was an attainable thing, but more and more that is less possible for more people.

What is more, many won't see anything having to do with Pro/Semi-Pro gravel racing because it is so poorly covered by the media, especially visually. Just trying to follow any possible "gravel cycling heroes" will be difficult. That is, if cyclists will even want to have gravel cycling heroes.

 It would seem to me that it has become a thing to democratize "The Hero Status" anyway, so that everyone can be a "hero". You don't have to follow in the footsteps of those professionals anymore. Strava, Instagram, and other forms of social media have distributed attention and status to many and essentially this has decentralized cycling in particular. So, the effect of increasing Professional level events by the UCI/USAC won't have the effect that it may have had 20-25 years ago or more. In other words, many people just don't care what the UCI/USAC does or who wins their events. 

And really, because of the over-saturation caused by social media, there are 'more than you can follow' gravel influencers and athletes. So, because of all the "noise", you either focus on one or two things or tune it all out. On one hand information is good, but when it all just becomes mush, it isn't good anymore. This is the point gravel is at in 2024.

Well, those are my thoughts going into 2024 concerning gravel cycling. What do you think? let me know in the comments.

Thanks for reading Guitar Ted Productions.