If I Had To Guess....

Image courtesy of Singular Cycles

The buzz over the 32"ers hasn't died down much since Sea Otter and some folks are already in line waiting on delivery of the ultimate wagon-wheeled bicycle. But what intrigues me the most is how these bikes will be received after the initial wave of enthusiasm over them wanes. 

I see some signs of momentum, (no pun intended) for 32"ers and gravel cycling. I see some interest in the wheel size for bike packing. Of course, the initial buzz was created by XC MTB and 32 inch wheels. 

I have a couple of reasons to believe that 32 inch wheels will be more popular in gravel and bike packing than they will be for mountain biking. I think it comes down to two physics related issues. 

Larger wheels hold momentum better than smaller ones do given similar set ups. Now this is a good thing for gravel riders. It may also come in handy for a bike packer, depending upon the area being ridden. Mountain biking can be a momentum driven sport, but more often than not, you are dealing with stopping quickly, or lots of deceleration, and then lots of little accelerations. Especially in Mid-West single track. Stop - Go - Stop - Go. Tight corners, not much "flow". 

I can see 32 being good on some flowy stuff, but on "real" single track? I gotta think it would be better on a 29"er. Maybe I am way off. Of course, it's all just speculation as of now. 

The other thing I see is just how darn big the rear wheel is and how dropping into steeps and trying to get your butt low and back is going to be a hindrance on a 32"er. The shorter you are, the worse this will be, in my opinion. 

Screen grab from a Trek video showing their 32"er FS proto

Gravel cycling, and to a degree, bikepacking, probably are not as affected by those two things as MTB will be. Add on the fact that below a medium sized bike your geometry will necessarily be wonky with 32"er wheels and the market for big wheeled 32"ers seems a bit limited. So, for MTB, I don't see 32"ers being super-popular. 

Trek and a couple others are banking on the MTB 32"er, and maybe they will be "right", or at the least, okay with whatever they put out eventually. Uniquely, Twin Six has a design which could be either MTB or gravel/bike packing.  Other brands, like Singular, have a model for MTB and one for gravel. Most brands seem to be hedging toward MTB as of now. 

The MTB bikes will certainly garner a lot of sales and attention on the front end of 32"er sales, but I feel gravel/bike packing will eventually become where 32"ers are at their best. We've already seen 32 inch wheels do well at Unbound. Of course, 32"ers have already been seen at the front of some XC events as well. So maybe none of those results is a good indicator for 32"er sales in "the real world". 

Again, I have nothing in terms of hard data to say one way or the other. But if I had to guess now, my gut feeling is 32'ers are going to become a bigger deal in gravel and bike packing than they will be for mountain biking.