Friday News And Views

Chris Skogen as seen at a recent gravel event in Kansas.

Skogen 'Pulls Plug' On Event Promotions: 

In a March 4th post here I reported on a social media post by Chris Skogen that indicated that he was going to put on a series of events in a few different states in the USA. 

Now in another social media post, Skogen has informed the followers of his account that he no longer wants to produce those cycling events. 

Following is a quote from the May 2nd post seen on Instagram where he describes his feelings after announcing his intentions to put on these gravel events.

"Time passed and I realized I was chasing my old self. My ego took over. At the same time all of the stress trauma from the first time I did all of this event stuff came rushing back. It was ugly. I was ugly…so I pulled the plug on the event and let everyone that had signed up know that it wouldn’t be happening.

Relief set in."

 Comments: There was a lot of his post that rang true with me. Especially the parts about "stress trauma". I am intimately familiar with a lot of things regarding putting on events like Mr. Skogen has in the past, and, in my opinion anyway, I think I understand him in a way that maybe few others can. 

I'm not saying that to brag. There just is a set of experiences that I feel only a subset of people in the gravel scene have a deep understanding of and that some other people maybe would not fully grasp. To those who are still in the trenches, doing all the things they have to do to produce a gravel event to the best of their ability, I tip my cap to you. I am pretty sure that those people understand this statement of Mr. Skogen's also. 

Is this "retirement" for Mr. Skogen in terms of doing anything on gravel for cyclists to enjoy? In my interpretation of his full statement, I would say the answer is "yes". 

GCHoF 2023 Trip:

As of last Tuesday I have all the details nailed down for another trip to Emporia, Kansas to attend the 2nd induction of people into the Gravel Cycling Hall of Fame. 

My trip will land me in Emporia on Tuesday, then on Wednesday there is a ride of 20 miles which is to feature the Hall of Fame members. That is slated for 11:00am and then there will be the induction ceremony and after-party. The following day I will be hanging out for a little bit, then heading back home. 

Besides the GCHoF stuff I should be getting a bit of audio for the podcast from interviews or short conversations with individuals there. I may have a meeting with another individual which might result in a review opportunity. We'll see, but the point is, I am trying to muti-task this trip to make it a bit more valuable for me to be gone for that time and spend the money to do it. 

Of course, I am happy to attend and especially so because this is the class that will include Joel Dyke posthumously. Joel lost his life in a tragic home accident several years ago now. But for me, personally speaking, Joel was a behind-the-scenes supporter of mine. He seemed to be able to send me a message of support via email just when I needed it, and his sign-off of "Big Grin", and his calling me, as he did many others he cared about, "sexy pants", meant something really special. I cherished every interaction I had with him, and to see him get this honor will be a very special moment for many of us in attendance. 

Podcast Updates:

Since I've taken over the reins in terms of podcast production and editing, the "Guitar Ted Podcast" has been steadily growing. So, if you are one of our listeners, I thank you. I think the timely and steady releases of new episodes has been working in our favor. 

We (N.Y. Roll and I) have been blown away by the responses and by the growth in the audience from all over the world. As of last count, we have had people listening in from over 30 different nations. That's amazing to me. We even have had great sponsor support and we will be announcing a new sponsor partner this Summer which we are excited about.

As mentioned above, I hope to grab some interviews at the GCHoF gathering and we have plans to try to interview more folks from the gravel scene, past and present. Plus our usual general banter. The latest episode (art work for it is shown here) can be heard at THIS LINK or wherever you get your podcast from. 

Future plans are to record and publish episodes up until this late Fall or early Winter. Then we will call an end to "Season 1" and take a break for a bit. In the meantime, give it a listen if you care to. Episodes typically are about an hour in length.  Thanks!

Racks full of bikes - Not many people are buying.

Over-Supply - Underwhelming Sales Plague Industry in 2023:

 The whiplash effect of massive sales, which wiped out supply, and the resulting over-ordering, which has flooded retail shelves, is in full force now. 

Stock levels are at near-record levels in many areas, but surprisingly, a few high-end segments are still in short supply. That said, the sales and "deals" have been coming left and right lately.

The trouble is that consumers seem to be mostly unimpressed by all of this. Furthermore, there is an undercurrent of opinions that represent resentment on the part of consumers. A resentment which says that prices were too high before and now that these companies are suffering overstocks that they can just pound sand. 

Ooof!

Consumer sentiments don't seem to be very positive and with prices still higher than they were pre-pandemic, it would seem that the only way the glut of stock gets moved down the pipeline is that even deeper discounts will need to be employed to finally entice consumers into parting with their digitized dollars. That will likely come at the expense of a few companies and several jobs that won't be sustainable through these difficulties. And if what I am reading from several consumers is true, there will be rejoicing in the streets over it all. 

Thanks for reading Guitar Ted Productions! Have a great weekend!

Friday News And Views

Chris Skogen as seen at a recent gravel event in Kansas.

Skogen 'Pulls Plug' On Event Promotions: 

In a March 4th post here I reported on a social media post by Chris Skogen that indicated that he was going to put on a series of events in a few different states in the USA. 

Now in another social media post, Skogen has informed the followers of his account that he no longer wants to produce those cycling events. 

Following is a quote from the May 2nd post seen on Instagram where he describes his feelings after announcing his intentions to put on these gravel events.

"Time passed and I realized I was chasing my old self. My ego took over. At the same time all of the stress trauma from the first time I did all of this event stuff came rushing back. It was ugly. I was ugly…so I pulled the plug on the event and let everyone that had signed up know that it wouldn’t be happening.

Relief set in."

 Comments: There was a lot of his post that rang true with me. Especially the parts about "stress trauma". I am intimately familiar with a lot of things regarding putting on events like Mr. Skogen has in the past, and, in my opinion anyway, I think I understand him in a way that maybe few others can. 

I'm not saying that to brag. There just is a set of experiences that I feel only a subset of people in the gravel scene have a deep understanding of and that some other people maybe would not fully grasp. To those who are still in the trenches, doing all the things they have to do to produce a gravel event to the best of their ability, I tip my cap to you. I am pretty sure that those people understand this statement of Mr. Skogen's also. 

Is this "retirement" for Mr. Skogen in terms of doing anything on gravel for cyclists to enjoy? In my interpretation of his full statement, I would say the answer is "yes". 

GCHoF 2023 Trip:

As of last Tuesday I have all the details nailed down for another trip to Emporia, Kansas to attend the 2nd induction of people into the Gravel Cycling Hall of Fame. 

My trip will land me in Emporia on Tuesday, then on Wednesday there is a ride of 20 miles which is to feature the Hall of Fame members. That is slated for 11:00am and then there will be the induction ceremony and after-party. The following day I will be hanging out for a little bit, then heading back home. 

Besides the GCHoF stuff I should be getting a bit of audio for the podcast from interviews or short conversations with individuals there. I may have a meeting with another individual which might result in a review opportunity. We'll see, but the point is, I am trying to muti-task this trip to make it a bit more valuable for me to be gone for that time and spend the money to do it. 

Of course, I am happy to attend and especially so because this is the class that will include Joel Dyke posthumously. Joel lost his life in a tragic home accident several years ago now. But for me, personally speaking, Joel was a behind-the-scenes supporter of mine. He seemed to be able to send me a message of support via email just when I needed it, and his sign-off of "Big Grin", and his calling me, as he did many others he cared about, "sexy pants", meant something really special. I cherished every interaction I had with him, and to see him get this honor will be a very special moment for many of us in attendance. 

Podcast Updates:

Since I've taken over the reins in terms of podcast production and editing, the "Guitar Ted Podcast" has been steadily growing. So, if you are one of our listeners, I thank you. I think the timely and steady releases of new episodes has been working in our favor. 

We (N.Y. Roll and I) have been blown away by the responses and by the growth in the audience from all over the world. As of last count, we have had people listening in from over 30 different nations. That's amazing to me. We even have had great sponsor support and we will be announcing a new sponsor partner this Summer which we are excited about.

As mentioned above, I hope to grab some interviews at the GCHoF gathering and we have plans to try to interview more folks from the gravel scene, past and present. Plus our usual general banter. The latest episode (art work for it is shown here) can be heard at THIS LINK or wherever you get your podcast from. 

Future plans are to record and publish episodes up until this late Fall or early Winter. Then we will call an end to "Season 1" and take a break for a bit. In the meantime, give it a listen if you care to. Episodes typically are about an hour in length.  Thanks!

Racks full of bikes - Not many people are buying.

Over-Supply - Underwhelming Sales Plague Industry in 2023:

 The whiplash effect of massive sales, which wiped out supply, and the resulting over-ordering, which has flooded retail shelves, is in full force now. 

Stock levels are at near-record levels in many areas, but surprisingly, a few high-end segments are still in short supply. That said, the sales and "deals" have been coming left and right lately.

The trouble is that consumers seem to be mostly unimpressed by all of this. Furthermore, there is an undercurrent of opinions that represent resentment on the part of consumers. A resentment which says that prices were too high before and now that these companies are suffering overstocks that they can just pound sand. 

Ooof!

Consumer sentiments don't seem to be very positive and with prices still higher than they were pre-pandemic, it would seem that the only way the glut of stock gets moved down the pipeline is that even deeper discounts will need to be employed to finally entice consumers into parting with their digitized dollars. That will likely come at the expense of a few companies and several jobs that won't be sustainable through these difficulties. And if what I am reading from several consumers is true, there will be rejoicing in the streets over it all. 

Thanks for reading Guitar Ted Productions! Have a great weekend!

Adventure Marketing Gets Axed

Many sponsored athletes have found out they are unemployed recently.

One of the side effects of the recent bicycle sales bubble-bust due to the pandemic issues on the supply chain is that marketing gets cut. Many bicycle related companies see this as the most expendable part of their business, for better or worse. 

An example of this came to light Monday when it was announced on social media by BikePacking.com that Specialized had cut all of its sponsored " athletes under its "Seek and Enjoy Adventure Ambassador Program". In an article on BikePacking.com's website, it was also revealed that Diamondback has done a similar thing in regards to cuts and in the comments section of a Facebook post about this story, it was revealed that Salsa Cycles has also quietly done the same. 

Of course, since Specialized was named as "the bad guy" here, many took to the comments section to excoriate them again. However; it should not be seen as "the big guys being bad again". This is going to be happening industry-wide, and we're just seeing the first-fruits of what some experts are saying will take at least the next three years to work through, if not longer. 

That this has happened on the adventure side of cycling is also not to be wondered at. Bikepacking has a loyal and passionate fan base, but the numbers of cyclists that are engaged in that market are a small amount. Compare to the big gravel events that bring in, literally, thousands of participants at many of the bigger events, and compared to the stratospheric growth in electrified bicycle categories, the adventure market is a tiny number. If you are going to be forced to make a cut in the budget, this is the kind of thing you lop off first. 

And to be sure- if things don't improve soon, other athletes and programs will be cut. That may mean that these big-money drawing 'gravelleurs' we're hearing about may be looking at a lot smaller amounts of support from their sponsors. I'm betting that'll definitely be the case. Interesting times and this will bear watching as 2023 unfolds. 

UPDATED: Take a look at this Tweet snippet that was posted to social media early this morning:

When financial pressures mount, and the Tweet referenced here is evidence that this is, indeed, what is happening to cycling businesses, marketing and promotions budgets get slashed. Again- cycling media and cycling social media is going off on Specialized. This is short-sighted thinking and is missing the point. Expect more layoffs and cuts upcoming in 2023.

Adventure Marketing Gets Axed

Many sponsored athletes have found out they are unemployed recently.

One of the side effects of the recent bicycle sales bubble-bust due to the pandemic issues on the supply chain is that marketing gets cut. Many bicycle related companies see this as the most expendable part of their business, for better or worse. 

An example of this came to light Monday when it was announced on social media by BikePacking.com that Specialized had cut all of its sponsored " athletes under its "Seek and Enjoy Adventure Ambassador Program". In an article on BikePacking.com's website, it was also revealed that Diamondback has done a similar thing in regards to cuts and in the comments section of a Facebook post about this story, it was revealed that Salsa Cycles has also quietly done the same. 

Of course, since Specialized was named as "the bad guy" here, many took to the comments section to excoriate them again. However; it should not be seen as "the big guys being bad again". This is going to be happening industry-wide, and we're just seeing the first-fruits of what some experts are saying will take at least the next three years to work through, if not longer. 

That this has happened on the adventure side of cycling is also not to be wondered at. Bikepacking has a loyal and passionate fan base, but the numbers of cyclists that are engaged in that market are a small amount. Compare to the big gravel events that bring in, literally, thousands of participants at many of the bigger events, and compared to the stratospheric growth in electrified bicycle categories, the adventure market is a tiny number. If you are going to be forced to make a cut in the budget, this is the kind of thing you lop off first. 

And to be sure- if things don't improve soon, other athletes and programs will be cut. That may mean that these big-money drawing 'gravelleurs' we're hearing about may be looking at a lot smaller amounts of support from their sponsors. I'm betting that'll definitely be the case. Interesting times and this will bear watching as 2023 unfolds. 

UPDATED: Take a look at this Tweet snippet that was posted to social media early this morning:

When financial pressures mount, and the Tweet referenced here is evidence that this is, indeed, what is happening to cycling businesses, marketing and promotions budgets get slashed. Again- cycling media and cycling social media is going off on Specialized. This is short-sighted thinking and is missing the point. Expect more layoffs and cuts upcoming in 2023.

Friday News And Views

My old co-worker, Carl Buchanan with a "bike shop horror" from '06.

Mechanics Petition For Banning "Unfixable Bikes":

 
Recently a petition has been going around for the "banning of the manufacture of 'unfixable bicycles'."

Typically the bane of average shop mechanics, these "mart-bikes" almost always are made for floor appeal first and foremost, with the slight possibility of actually riding them way down the list of priorities. 

The petition states that such "bicycle-shaped objects" are really disheartening for children and lower income adults who typically rely on these bikes for mobility. The petition states that these bikes result in repair bills that eclipse the value of the bike and cause undue stress and harm. Following is a bullet point list of 'demands'. 

"We call on you to:
- Set a minimum durability standard for bicycles to last at least 500 riding hours before breaking down,
- Design bikes to be serviceable and hold adjustment, with replaceable and upgradable components, and
- Stop creating and selling bikes that are made to fall apart."

Comments: While I can sympathize with the plight of the mechanic, I think this petition is misdirected. Part of the onus here is on the consumer. If people understood what constitutes a "real bicycle" versus what you get at a big box store, it might make a difference in a few cases. But also- and this is probably the real issue, we can lay a LOT of the blame here on the bicycle industry at the higher levels. These are not necessarily the brands you see on 'mart bikes', but on the bike shop quality bikes. They have consistently and constantly driven technology, materials, and therefore costs, through to such a point that now an "entry level" bike-shop bike costs North of $600.00! 

I once had a great conversation on this subject with the legendary Gary Fisher. He had a great idea, which was to make the same parts over and over for years. Parts which were once 'top-shelf'- he proposed 8 speed XTR as an example- and with the same parts never changing, costs could come way down. Mate those to a simple frame, and boom! Inexpensive, high-quality bicycles for the masses. 

But when you change parts, colors, frame designs, and all that year-to-year, costs are harder to contain. And obviously inflation and all of that comes into play. However; when I see what smaller companies like State Bicycles can sell a bike for, I cannot help but imagine where prices could go if standardization of parts and pieces were maximized for the inexpensive bikes to meet entry level cyclist's needs.  

Hammerhead Purchased By SRAM:

Wednesday news broke that Hammerhead, the cycling computer company which makes the Karoo 2 computer, was acquired by SRAM and added to their portfolio of companies which includes Rock Shox, Zipp, TIME, and Quark, according to an article in "Bicycle Retailer and Industry News". 

Details of the acquisition were not released and SRAM claims all operations at Hammerhead will continue on as before. 

Comments: Obviously there is a plan here and I don't think it will take a genius to see where SRAM is going with Hammerhead's technology. SRAM's new move into an all-integrated system for MTB and road with its AXS wireless groups and further integration with Rock Shox products means that a centralized control unit would be a boon to those existing systems. 

I expect that SRAM will leverage Hammerhead's tech and release their own, proprietary AXS computer head utilizing the same radio frequency established for the SRAM wireless technologies already in place.  A touch screen control unit that would be easily configurable, upgradeable, and one that has a user-friendly, "smart phone-like" interface makes sense for SRAM. 

My question is how does this affect the future for Hammerhead Karoo users in the future?  Will SRAM demands on resources from Hammerhead cause the company to lose focus on their original business? Does that mean that my Hammerhead Karoo 2 becomes a paperweight sooner than it might have anyway? Time will tell, but whenever a take-over like this happens and the press release says "things will continue on as before with the company we bought" I am VERY skeptical.

"Vaccine Pass" Required For Tour Participants?

Recently in the news a new law passed in France may have an impact on professional races held in France including the Tour de France this coming July. 

Apparently any professional will be compelled to get vaccinated against COVID-19 to participate in any sports in France from this point forward. This would also include cycling, despite it being an out of doors activity, mainly due to hotel/motel considerations for team members and staff. Travel considerations would also be subject to the laws if the teams used public airlines, trains, or buses. Additionally, any person going to France to spectate will also have to prove proof of vaccination to enter motels, hotels, restaurants, and bars and to use public transportation. 

While most teams are reporting high percentages of their rosters as being vaccinated, some are not, which may dictate that certain team members not participate in the Tour or other French races. Furthermore, the new French law also stipulates that a booster vaccine shot must be proven to have been taken by any athlete who has been vaccinated for four months or longer.

Similar restrictions exist in Italy, and in some Middle Eastern countries.  The UCI has not formulated its 2022 vaccine protocols yet and said that for the time being teams should respect each nation's laws. 

Comments: Once again, the pandemic strikes. However; some experts are saying we are entering the 'endemic phase' of this viral wave and that the case numbers will show that by the end of this year. Meanwhile other nations are taking a bit of a conservative approach as the Omicron variant rages across the world. In the USA? Events are taking registrants as if nothing is going on. It's a very odd situation. 

I'm not saying we are (the USA) wrong or right, but you'd think that some mention of protocols for the health and safety of riders would still be alluded to, if in fact anything is going to be done at all. We'll see..... It is interesting to note that the industry get together called "CABDA", to be held in Chicago next month, has been cancelled. Meanwhile, the Iowa Bicycle Expo, to be held in Des Moines, Iowa, is full throttle, and will be held this month. Confused? 

Yeah......

The Enduo Track chain ring and chain. (Image courtesy of New Motion Labs)

Enduo Evolve Chain Reminds Of Skip-Tooth Chains Of Past:

Recently a new chain and chain ring design caught my eye as it reminded me of something which looked similar used pre-WWII on many single speed bicycles. The "Enduo Evolve" chain is a bit different take on how a chain works. the company which makes this new chain is called New Motion Labs and they claim a significant energy savings over conventional chains. 

Essentially what a 'normal chain' does when it interfaces with a sprocket is that the chain slides in the 'valley' between the teeth of a sprocket, which causes friction. Furthermore; the roller on one side bears most of the load for energy transfer, and that gets concentrated at the point where the chain pin is inserted into the outer chain plate. All of this wastes energy, according to New Motion Labs. 

They solve the problem by utilizing a 'skip tooth' design and interfacing two links of chain in a 'valley' which then spreads the load against the sprocket teeth and eliminates the sliding of rollers against chain rings. Therefore; it is claimed; the Enduo Evolve chain saves watts.  

Comments: Looking through the New Motion Labs site, their claims make sense. However; it is obvious that this is a single ring/cog drive train set up only. The Enduo Evolve chain is not designed for side loading/shifting and is obviously far too wide anyway. But perhaps for track racing and BMX? It could be pretty good there. I'd give it a whirl on a single speed gravel bike. But I think where this is really meant to go is in the electrified bike, motorcycle, and manufacturing directions. 

Okay, that's a wrap on this week! Stay warm and get outside if you can this weekend! 

Friday News And Views

My old co-worker, Carl Buchanan with a "bike shop horror" from '06.

Mechanics Petition For Banning "Unfixable Bikes":

 
Recently a petition has been going around for the "banning of the manufacture of 'unfixable bicycles'."

Typically the bane of average shop mechanics, these "mart-bikes" almost always are made for floor appeal first and foremost, with the slight possibility of actually riding them way down the list of priorities. 

The petition states that such "bicycle-shaped objects" are really disheartening for children and lower income adults who typically rely on these bikes for mobility. The petition states that these bikes result in repair bills that eclipse the value of the bike and cause undue stress and harm. Following is a bullet point list of 'demands'. 

"We call on you to:
- Set a minimum durability standard for bicycles to last at least 500 riding hours before breaking down,
- Design bikes to be serviceable and hold adjustment, with replaceable and upgradable components, and
- Stop creating and selling bikes that are made to fall apart."

Comments: While I can sympathize with the plight of the mechanic, I think this petition is misdirected. Part of the onus here is on the consumer. If people understood what constitutes a "real bicycle" versus what you get at a big box store, it might make a difference in a few cases. But also- and this is probably the real issue, we can lay a LOT of the blame here on the bicycle industry at the higher levels. These are not necessarily the brands you see on 'mart bikes', but on the bike shop quality bikes. They have consistently and constantly driven technology, materials, and therefore costs, through to such a point that now an "entry level" bike-shop bike costs North of $600.00! 

I once had a great conversation on this subject with the legendary Gary Fisher. He had a great idea, which was to make the same parts over and over for years. Parts which were once 'top-shelf'- he proposed 8 speed XTR as an example- and with the same parts never changing, costs could come way down. Mate those to a simple frame, and boom! Inexpensive, high-quality bicycles for the masses. 

But when you change parts, colors, frame designs, and all that year-to-year, costs are harder to contain. And obviously inflation and all of that comes into play. However; when I see what smaller companies like State Bicycles can sell a bike for, I cannot help but imagine where prices could go if standardization of parts and pieces were maximized for the inexpensive bikes to meet entry level cyclist's needs.  

Hammerhead Purchased By SRAM:

Wednesday news broke that Hammerhead, the cycling computer company which makes the Karoo 2 computer, was acquired by SRAM and added to their portfolio of companies which includes Rock Shox, Zipp, TIME, and Quark, according to an article in "Bicycle Retailer and Industry News". 

Details of the acquisition were not released and SRAM claims all operations at Hammerhead will continue on as before. 

Comments: Obviously there is a plan here and I don't think it will take a genius to see where SRAM is going with Hammerhead's technology. SRAM's new move into an all-integrated system for MTB and road with its AXS wireless groups and further integration with Rock Shox products means that a centralized control unit would be a boon to those existing systems. 

I expect that SRAM will leverage Hammerhead's tech and release their own, proprietary AXS computer head utilizing the same radio frequency established for the SRAM wireless technologies already in place.  A touch screen control unit that would be easily configurable, upgradeable, and one that has a user-friendly, "smart phone-like" interface makes sense for SRAM. 

My question is how does this affect the future for Hammerhead Karoo users in the future?  Will SRAM demands on resources from Hammerhead cause the company to lose focus on their original business? Does that mean that my Hammerhead Karoo 2 becomes a paperweight sooner than it might have anyway? Time will tell, but whenever a take-over like this happens and the press release says "things will continue on as before with the company we bought" I am VERY skeptical.

"Vaccine Pass" Required For Tour Participants?

Recently in the news a new law passed in France may have an impact on professional races held in France including the Tour de France this coming July. 

Apparently any professional will be compelled to get vaccinated against COVID-19 to participate in any sports in France from this point forward. This would also include cycling, despite it being an out of doors activity, mainly due to hotel/motel considerations for team members and staff. Travel considerations would also be subject to the laws if the teams used public airlines, trains, or buses. Additionally, any person going to France to spectate will also have to prove proof of vaccination to enter motels, hotels, restaurants, and bars and to use public transportation. 

While most teams are reporting high percentages of their rosters as being vaccinated, some are not, which may dictate that certain team members not participate in the Tour or other French races. Furthermore, the new French law also stipulates that a booster vaccine shot must be proven to have been taken by any athlete who has been vaccinated for four months or longer.

Similar restrictions exist in Italy, and in some Middle Eastern countries.  The UCI has not formulated its 2022 vaccine protocols yet and said that for the time being teams should respect each nation's laws. 

Comments: Once again, the pandemic strikes. However; some experts are saying we are entering the 'endemic phase' of this viral wave and that the case numbers will show that by the end of this year. Meanwhile other nations are taking a bit of a conservative approach as the Omicron variant rages across the world. In the USA? Events are taking registrants as if nothing is going on. It's a very odd situation. 

I'm not saying we are (the USA) wrong or right, but you'd think that some mention of protocols for the health and safety of riders would still be alluded to, if in fact anything is going to be done at all. We'll see..... It is interesting to note that the industry get together called "CABDA", to be held in Chicago next month, has been cancelled. Meanwhile, the Iowa Bicycle Expo, to be held in Des Moines, Iowa, is full throttle, and will be held this month. Confused? 

Yeah......

The Enduo Track chain ring and chain. (Image courtesy of New Motion Labs)

Enduo Evolve Chain Reminds Of Skip-Tooth Chains Of Past:

Recently a new chain and chain ring design caught my eye as it reminded me of something which looked similar used pre-WWII on many single speed bicycles. The "Enduo Evolve" chain is a bit different take on how a chain works. the company which makes this new chain is called New Motion Labs and they claim a significant energy savings over conventional chains. 

Essentially what a 'normal chain' does when it interfaces with a sprocket is that the chain slides in the 'valley' between the teeth of a sprocket, which causes friction. Furthermore; the roller on one side bears most of the load for energy transfer, and that gets concentrated at the point where the chain pin is inserted into the outer chain plate. All of this wastes energy, according to New Motion Labs. 

They solve the problem by utilizing a 'skip tooth' design and interfacing two links of chain in a 'valley' which then spreads the load against the sprocket teeth and eliminates the sliding of rollers against chain rings. Therefore; it is claimed; the Enduo Evolve chain saves watts.  

Comments: Looking through the New Motion Labs site, their claims make sense. However; it is obvious that this is a single ring/cog drive train set up only. The Enduo Evolve chain is not designed for side loading/shifting and is obviously far too wide anyway. But perhaps for track racing and BMX? It could be pretty good there. I'd give it a whirl on a single speed gravel bike. But I think where this is really meant to go is in the electrified bike, motorcycle, and manufacturing directions. 

Okay, that's a wrap on this week! Stay warm and get outside if you can this weekend! 

Randomonium (Saturday Edition)

 NOTE: Okay folks, if you haven't been around long enough here to know what a "Randomonium" post is, then here is the deal. I ramble, rant, and randomly moan about all things cycling in one, incohesive, bizarre post. "Randomonium", okay?

More Dire Predictions Come To Light:

Last Saturday I ran a piece about the supply chain issues and how that will affect 2022. I also hinted that many in the industry were thinking that 'the bubble will bust' when supply levels come back in the amounts that have been ordered, while the predicted demand for this stuff is agreed by most experts to be less than expectations are. 

An article published recently in "Bicycle Retailer and Industry News" authored by analyst Rick Vosper seems to be saying that even if retail demand goes back to pre-pandemic levels, those levels were on the decrease, for the most part, and 2019 in particular was a very poor year for bicycle imports. 

Most experts seem to agree that a tsunami of high end imports will hit retailers at the end of this year with 2022/2023 orders stacking up against one another in a short timeline for dealers, forcing deep discounts. Standard fare will also be in overstock levels as well due to a similar situation, but......

There always is an exception. 

The other thing the experts seem to agree upon is that this will force a big pull-back in the industry in orders. This whiplash effect in the supply chain will leave vendors, and most vulnerable of all- bike shops- out in the cold. While the experts didn't go as far as to say that there would be business failures as a result, they did say that a lot of bike shops are in a highly leveraged situation now financially. That could spell disaster if the supply chain hiccups that experts are saying will be coming in '22 and '23 happen. 

When the 2022 route is announced it will be under a new leader.

RAGBRAI Gets A New Director:

Gannet/Des Moines Register/RAGBRAI announced last week that it will have a new leader for this year's RAGBRAI and future editions of this event. Former director, Dieter Drake, was promoted upward in the Gannet organization to be "events operations director" for the cycling division of  "Ventures Endurance", a subsidiary of Gannet Corporation. 

The new director is Matt Phippen, formerly a sales director at the Iowa City Scheels location. Phippen takes over effective immediately. I'm sure RAGBRAI won't see too much in the way of changes from this, at least in the near term. My interest comes from the somewhat unknown "The Great Iowa Fall Ride" event, which was a project that Dieter Drake was exploring pre-pandemic. (I wrote a bit about this last year here)

Originally that ride was to be set in Iowa Falls and be a three day, gravel road oriented affair. The idea being that it could be a way for RAGBRAI to extend its revenue stream. My question is, what will become of that idea? And if it comes back as a gravel ride, does that then influence Dieter Drake, as the head of the cycling division arm of Gannett , to produce more events like this in other locales in the future? 

Gravel riding is a big deal now, and 'getting in on the action' is one event promotion corporation's agendas now. We see Life Time Fitness cashing in, USA Cycling is wedging itself into the scene from a competitive side, and it only makes sense that communities and regions would be willing to work with big corporate entities to bring in the promise of tourism dollars and the economic benefits thereof. 

In fact, I was called by a person doing consulting/coaching with teams and cities concerning bicycle trails this week regarding the gravel scene. So, this is on many people's radar now. I look for more to happen in this regard in the near future.

More Reactions To The Gravel Cycling Hall of Fame Announcement:

Okay, first of all- yes, I've been nominated. So, I wanted you all to know that up front.

Second of all: Whoa! People sure got their chamois' in a wad over this deal, that's for sure! Ya know, I did see someone on Twitter say that if a Gravel Cycling Hall of Fame celebrates cycling, then why would any cyclists be against that? 

And I guess that's my favorite reaction, and my adopted response from this point forward. I  mean, if you don't like it, just move along. What harm is it going to bring to cyclists? If you think it is stupid, just forget about it. Giving it space, rent free, in your emotions and mind is, well.......dumb. Just don't bother with it. 

Finally: Many people are saying very flattering things about me and my work in the gravel scene. This is an example. So, that's very humbling and I so appreciate all the sentiments being expressed now. It's kind of hard to process this, for me, and I'm sure it probably always will be. Anyway, even if I never were to get into any hall of fame, I'd be proud of this moment in time because so many folks are coming out and putting my name out there as "belonging" in a hall of fame of gravel cycling. 

Weird.It's all so very weird to me.

Randomonium (Saturday Edition)

 NOTE: Okay folks, if you haven't been around long enough here to know what a "Randomonium" post is, then here is the deal. I ramble, rant, and randomly moan about all things cycling in one, incohesive, bizarre post. "Randomonium", okay?

More Dire Predictions Come To Light:

Last Saturday I ran a piece about the supply chain issues and how that will affect 2022. I also hinted that many in the industry were thinking that 'the bubble will bust' when supply levels come back in the amounts that have been ordered, while the predicted demand for this stuff is agreed by most experts to be less than expectations are. 

An article published recently in "Bicycle Retailer and Industry News" authored by analyst Rick Vosper seems to be saying that even if retail demand goes back to pre-pandemic levels, those levels were on the decrease, for the most part, and 2019 in particular was a very poor year for bicycle imports. 

Most experts seem to agree that a tsunami of high end imports will hit retailers at the end of this year with 2022/2023 orders stacking up against one another in a short timeline for dealers, forcing deep discounts. Standard fare will also be in overstock levels as well due to a similar situation, but......

There always is an exception. 

The other thing the experts seem to agree upon is that this will force a big pull-back in the industry in orders. This whiplash effect in the supply chain will leave vendors, and most vulnerable of all- bike shops- out in the cold. While the experts didn't go as far as to say that there would be business failures as a result, they did say that a lot of bike shops are in a highly leveraged situation now financially. That could spell disaster if the supply chain hiccups that experts are saying will be coming in '22 and '23 happen. 

When the 2022 route is announced it will be under a new leader.

RAGBRAI Gets A New Director:

Gannet/Des Moines Register/RAGBRAI announced last week that it will have a new leader for this year's RAGBRAI and future editions of this event. Former director, Dieter Drake, was promoted upward in the Gannet organization to be "events operations director" for the cycling division of  "Ventures Endurance", a subsidiary of Gannet Corporation. 

The new director is Matt Phippen, formerly a sales director at the Iowa City Scheels location. Phippen takes over effective immediately. I'm sure RAGBRAI won't see too much in the way of changes from this, at least in the near term. My interest comes from the somewhat unknown "The Great Iowa Fall Ride" event, which was a project that Dieter Drake was exploring pre-pandemic. (I wrote a bit about this last year here)

Originally that ride was to be set in Iowa Falls and be a three day, gravel road oriented affair. The idea being that it could be a way for RAGBRAI to extend its revenue stream. My question is, what will become of that idea? And if it comes back as a gravel ride, does that then influence Dieter Drake, as the head of the cycling division arm of Gannett , to produce more events like this in other locales in the future? 

Gravel riding is a big deal now, and 'getting in on the action' is one event promotion corporation's agendas now. We see Life Time Fitness cashing in, USA Cycling is wedging itself into the scene from a competitive side, and it only makes sense that communities and regions would be willing to work with big corporate entities to bring in the promise of tourism dollars and the economic benefits thereof. 

In fact, I was called by a person doing consulting/coaching with teams and cities concerning bicycle trails this week regarding the gravel scene. So, this is on many people's radar now. I look for more to happen in this regard in the near future.

More Reactions To The Gravel Cycling Hall of Fame Announcement:

Okay, first of all- yes, I've been nominated. So, I wanted you all to know that up front.

Second of all: Whoa! People sure got their chamois' in a wad over this deal, that's for sure! Ya know, I did see someone on Twitter say that if a Gravel Cycling Hall of Fame celebrates cycling, then why would any cyclists be against that? 

And I guess that's my favorite reaction, and my adopted response from this point forward. I  mean, if you don't like it, just move along. What harm is it going to bring to cyclists? If you think it is stupid, just forget about it. Giving it space, rent free, in your emotions and mind is, well.......dumb. Just don't bother with it. 

Finally: Many people are saying very flattering things about me and my work in the gravel scene. This is an example. So, that's very humbling and I so appreciate all the sentiments being expressed now. It's kind of hard to process this, for me, and I'm sure it probably always will be. Anyway, even if I never were to get into any hall of fame, I'd be proud of this moment in time because so many folks are coming out and putting my name out there as "belonging" in a hall of fame of gravel cycling. 

Weird.It's all so very weird to me.

Signs Pointing To Another Short-Supply Season

High end parts, like this AXS cassette, are hard to come by these days.

Recently I have been seeing some write-ups and I've had some conversations regarding supply of parts and bicycles for 2022. 

Let me tell ya- it doesn't look all that great.......AGAIN! 

While some folks seem to think that we'll be slowly rising up out of this, most agree that 'if that happens' it won't occur until late this year. Some other folks are taking a more negative view and are saying this year will pretty much be a mirror of 2021 and things don't look to change significantly until 2023. 

Making prognostications is difficult, possibly foolish, so take this all with a grain of salt, but this stuff is coming from those inside the industry and - in my opinion- most of these folks are trying to be as positive as possible. Outside of cycling, the shipping woes, supply chain issues, and warehousing issues still are ongoing with no end in sight. In my opinion, unless those things straighten out, bicycle people can be positive all they want to be, but that doesn't fix the big issue here. 

I'll list a few of the things people are bantering about here that will affect your abilities to get stuff for your bicycle, and bicycles, in 2022. In no particular order......

• Energy Crisis In China: China has issues with having enough energy to make things work on many levels. This has affected supply chains. It also may become a big geo-political issue going forward, so bicycles may not be the biggest concern there. 
• Raw Materials Issues: Some folks are talking about how frame manufacturing and component manufacturing is being hampered by ongoing materials shortages. Especially raw materials.  
• Demand: Obviously, demand spiked in 2020, but it didn't relent in 2021 with most companies claiming that they had more revenue, by a little bit, over 2020. This puts continued pressure on supply.
• Shipping & Freight Costs: Shipping container costs and freight costs in general have skyrocketed. This makes anything you want for your bicycle more expensive than it was. New bicycles will cost significantly more than they had been costing pre-pandemic. (If you can get something new) 
• The Future: Many in the industry are now becoming leery of a sharp drop off in demand or that inflation will induce a drop in sales. Both things seem likely.

I was chatting with a local bike shop friend that shared with me that parts are still very difficult to obtain. You know things are still bad when you see a Tweet with content showing a Shimano 11 speed chain and how happy and excited that made the author of the Tweet. An 11 speed chain? Wow....how exciting! Yes- two years ago this person would likely have been laughed off social media. Today? We look at that and think, "Yeah, I get you, Man! You are lucky!". 

And sales going forward are going to be rough. First off, I know many companies are not looking to have much 2022 inventory on bicycles due to the inability to get parts. I've heard some bikes are not showing up- which were ordered in the Summer of 2021- until late this Summer or early Fall 2022. Certainly, we will see spotty availability here and there, but one bicycle person was quoted in a story I read saying that it will be 2024 before you can go into a shop and get what you want - on the floor or ordered- in a timely fashion as we could pre-pandemic. Obviously things would have to improve a lot to just get to that point.

Traditional bike shops will have another difficult year in 2022.

So, I feel like 2022 is going to start out rough, possibly get better, and by the time the season is about over, we may see stock on bikes and parts coming back to levels approaching pre-pandemic levels. But......

By that point, will anyone attracted to cycling in 2020 still care? This is the worry that many in the industry have now. And, it is a real concern. I have seen several ads on the local bicycle sales pages for bicycles barely ridden, purchased in 2020, and which- more than likely- are not getting replaced. Look at your local bicycle sale pages and I bet that you'll note that as well. 

While electrified bicycles seem to have a huge potential here in the US, the semi-conductor chip shortage - which is predicted to be ongoing throughout 2022- is going to put a damper on demand. Higher prices for electrified bikes at traditional bike shops likely will push even more sales to D2C brands. So, brick-and -mortar retail looks to have a another difficult year ahead of them. 

As an avid cycling nut, I know that things will be hard to get, so it makes me second guess doing things which I know will put my parts and pieces through hell. Bad forecast for that gravel event? It may mean that I don't show up because I know chains and cassettes are very difficult to get, and I'd rather be riding than sitting around searching the innergoogles for cassettes and chains. (And that's another thing this pandemic-induced shortage has done. It has made ordinary consumers experts in sourcing their own stuff, where they used to go to a bike shop) So, by association events which find themselves facing poor weather forecasts may see the effects of the difficult supply chain issues. 

Whatever happens, it will be an interesting year- again- for the bicycle industry and consumers.

Signs Pointing To Another Short-Supply Season

High end parts, like this AXS cassette, are hard to come by these days.

Recently I have been seeing some write-ups and I've had some conversations regarding supply of parts and bicycles for 2022. 

Let me tell ya- it doesn't look all that great.......AGAIN! 

While some folks seem to think that we'll be slowly rising up out of this, most agree that 'if that happens' it won't occur until late this year. Some other folks are taking a more negative view and are saying this year will pretty much be a mirror of 2021 and things don't look to change significantly until 2023. 

Making prognostications is difficult, possibly foolish, so take this all with a grain of salt, but this stuff is coming from those inside the industry and - in my opinion- most of these folks are trying to be as positive as possible. Outside of cycling, the shipping woes, supply chain issues, and warehousing issues still are ongoing with no end in sight. In my opinion, unless those things straighten out, bicycle people can be positive all they want to be, but that doesn't fix the big issue here. 

I'll list a few of the things people are bantering about here that will affect your abilities to get stuff for your bicycle, and bicycles, in 2022. In no particular order......

• Energy Crisis In China: China has issues with having enough energy to make things work on many levels. This has affected supply chains. It also may become a big geo-political issue going forward, so bicycles may not be the biggest concern there. 
• Raw Materials Issues: Some folks are talking about how frame manufacturing and component manufacturing is being hampered by ongoing materials shortages. Especially raw materials.  
• Demand: Obviously, demand spiked in 2020, but it didn't relent in 2021 with most companies claiming that they had more revenue, by a little bit, over 2020. This puts continued pressure on supply.
• Shipping & Freight Costs: Shipping container costs and freight costs in general have skyrocketed. This makes anything you want for your bicycle more expensive than it was. New bicycles will cost significantly more than they had been costing pre-pandemic. (If you can get something new) 
• The Future: Many in the industry are now becoming leery of a sharp drop off in demand or that inflation will induce a drop in sales. Both things seem likely.

I was chatting with a local bike shop friend that shared with me that parts are still very difficult to obtain. You know things are still bad when you see a Tweet with content showing a Shimano 11 speed chain and how happy and excited that made the author of the Tweet. An 11 speed chain? Wow....how exciting! Yes- two years ago this person would likely have been laughed off social media. Today? We look at that and think, "Yeah, I get you, Man! You are lucky!". 

And sales going forward are going to be rough. First off, I know many companies are not looking to have much 2022 inventory on bicycles due to the inability to get parts. I've heard some bikes are not showing up- which were ordered in the Summer of 2021- until late this Summer or early Fall 2022. Certainly, we will see spotty availability here and there, but one bicycle person was quoted in a story I read saying that it will be 2024 before you can go into a shop and get what you want - on the floor or ordered- in a timely fashion as we could pre-pandemic. Obviously things would have to improve a lot to just get to that point.

Traditional bike shops will have another difficult year in 2022.

So, I feel like 2022 is going to start out rough, possibly get better, and by the time the season is about over, we may see stock on bikes and parts coming back to levels approaching pre-pandemic levels. But......

By that point, will anyone attracted to cycling in 2020 still care? This is the worry that many in the industry have now. And, it is a real concern. I have seen several ads on the local bicycle sales pages for bicycles barely ridden, purchased in 2020, and which- more than likely- are not getting replaced. Look at your local bicycle sale pages and I bet that you'll note that as well. 

While electrified bicycles seem to have a huge potential here in the US, the semi-conductor chip shortage - which is predicted to be ongoing throughout 2022- is going to put a damper on demand. Higher prices for electrified bikes at traditional bike shops likely will push even more sales to D2C brands. So, brick-and -mortar retail looks to have a another difficult year ahead of them. 

As an avid cycling nut, I know that things will be hard to get, so it makes me second guess doing things which I know will put my parts and pieces through hell. Bad forecast for that gravel event? It may mean that I don't show up because I know chains and cassettes are very difficult to get, and I'd rather be riding than sitting around searching the innergoogles for cassettes and chains. (And that's another thing this pandemic-induced shortage has done. It has made ordinary consumers experts in sourcing their own stuff, where they used to go to a bike shop) So, by association events which find themselves facing poor weather forecasts may see the effects of the difficult supply chain issues. 

Whatever happens, it will be an interesting year- again- for the bicycle industry and consumers.

Friday News And Views

The Cotic eMTB prototype. (Image courtesy of Cotic social media)

One Example Of The "New Normal":

As time with this pandemic eases on it has become increasingly apparent that we are in an era, (however short or long it ends up being), of delays, shortages, and long lead times as a result. 

Case in point: Cotic, the UK based MTB brand, has announced that they are working on a motorized MTB rig. You can read all about the finer details here. That post on the Cotic site is a pretty good representation of what it takes for smaller brands to get things done during this 'new era' we find ourselves in.

Comments: So, if you place orders now you 'might' see product by the end of 2023? Did I get that right? Wow! Obviously larger brands will command better terms, but this is not a good sign for the consumer. That would indicate that this coming year will be a lot like the last two years- stuff will be hard to get. As I've said in the past, it wouldn't be a bad idea for consumers to stock up on spares: Chains, cassettes, brake pads, etc, whenever you see what you need in stock. Then you'll have it when you actually need it, instead of scrambling at the last minute to source parts.  

Just A Friendly Reminder:

This is the month of retrospect here on "Guitar Ted Productions". No doubt you've already noted some posts with that theme. Expect much of the same throughout the month of December.

I'll have limited space for 'regular posting' due to the volume of stuff I am working through, so if you are here jonesing for 'current events' then this month will have slim pickings. I'll return to a more familiar schedule here in January, which isn't all that far away! Stay tuned!

In the meantime, I'll point out that many days this month will have double postings. Two posts in one day- so to ensure you don't miss anything, scroll down the page, or consult the right column (on desk top versions of this blog) where my current posts for the month are listed individually. I'll double post if anything exciting or newsworthy (or both) comes up, so don't worry about missing anything in that regard due to my schedule of posts being so intense this month. 

By the way, I have four "Virtual Turkey Burn" reports to share starting with N.Y. Roll's submission tomorrow, which will be followed by the other three in a shot-gun style. So look for all four tomorrow. 

And the 'regularly scheduled posts', like the "FN&V" you are reading now, will still appear. Okay, that's enough about that! Thanks again for your patronage here and for your patience with me this month.

Mason Cycles Debuts New "RAW" MTB frame:

You just don't see many steel hardtail MTB debuts anymore, unless you count UK MTB purveyors. For whatever reason, the UK has never really abandoned steel MTB bikes. 

Mason Cycles just announced a new offering which seems pretty interesting as it is aimed at bikepacking/MTB all-around use, not just for DH/Enduro or go-fast XC-ing, which many times is the case with a hard tail offering from a US based designer. 

The RAW can take up to a 2.6" 29"er tire with a max 34T big ring. That's pretty good there, I think. Then you have the 66° head angle and short-ish chain stays. I've had my say on that here before and I seem to be outnumbered when it comes to that opinion, but I still think we're seeing the outer fringes of slack head angle design and at some point we're going to find a 'pulling back' on those numbers. Closer to 70° but not quite that, in the future. 

We'll see... 

So this is a pretty cool bike. The "Signal Yellow" paint is somewhat reminiscent of the "Fun Guy Green" Fargo coloration, but more yellow. I kind of like that as well. The frame comes with a Rock Shox SID Ultimate fork, so yeah......it's expensive. But what isn't these days compared to just a few years ago? Not that it matters to me, but if I were to get a MTB, this one would be high on the list.   

Recycling Rubber:

Getting rid of old, unwanted tires has been a plague on me since this whole reviewing process started up. What to do? The entire life cycle of tires has always really bothered me from an environmental aspect. There just was no really good options for recycling them at all. 

Well, now things may be changing in regard to this as I see an article on "Pink Bike" here that indicates Schwalbe, the German based tire manufacturer, is working to bring tire recycling for bicycle tires to reality. 

Now how far this gets is anyone's guess, but it is a start. It would be nice to see a program where anywhere that sells tires (for anything) has to recycle them if they are dropped off to them, or something similar. I know we used to have a service come pick up used car tires once a month when I worked on automobiles. Yes- it would be a hassle for retailers, but it would be much better than filling our land fills with tires, or even worse, burning them, which is still done as well. 

That's a wrap for this week. Have a great weekend and get outside!