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| A quarter century of mechanic experience: GT circa 2005 |
I had a conversation with a bicycle parts supplier representative recently and I came away with the feeling that the bicycle business is in for a big change, or it may not survive to see the next decade.
I've been a mechanic for over 25 years now, and I've been in retail sales since I was in the 5th grade as a newspaper boy. I've had to deal with customers all of my life. So, I've seen the ups and downs of retail. How retail works, how it doesn't work, and I've seen major disruptions to how retail has traditionally been done since I started. Using my experience as a guide, and reading and speaking with those in the bicycle industry now, I can say that "disruption" is going to be a term many in this cycling scene are going to have to get used to soon.
As I understand the term used now in its modern sense, "disruption" is a term used when a form of how business is done is revolutionized. Think about how we consume media, as a great example of this. Back when I used to deliver newspapers, there were three T.V. channels, you heard new music on this contraption called a radio, and information moved at the pace of a tortoise. Now? Newspapers are an endangered species, visual media is everywhere, and new music can be heard at anytime, anywhere, from any genre' you can create or think of. That's a big disruption!
All along, bicycle business has fundamentally not been changed for half a century. Sure, technology has changed the way some things are done, but fundamentally this business has been left in the dust by most other forms of retail when it comes to how bicycles are perceived and how they are sold and serviced. If the bicycle business is to survive, it will need to be disrupted- re-invented- or it will disappear.
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| It's getting harder and harder to find good, young mechanics. |
Mechanics in the bike business are "aging out" in a hurry. Most people I know that are bicycle mechanics are all well over 30 years of age. Many are in their 50's. Good, young mechanics are difficult to find and retain. Why?
Because we don't pay them enough money, that's why. In 2022, a young person can find a job doing pretty easy work, (retail/service sectors most often) that pays a wage of $15.00 or so an hour. Many mechanics, with years of service under their belt are maybe making 10 bucks an hour more than that. Many younger mechanics barely make 20 bucks an hour. That's ridiculous for a service technician job which requires knowledge of special tools, their proper use, and to have diagnostic skills to boot.
Ever had a "bottom bracket noise" that wasn't? Turns out that these are the sorts of seemingly trivial things that a good mechanic can figure out for you in a relatively short period of time, do the work properly, and get you back on the trail/road sooner than later. Poorly trained mechanics, or "You Tube" mechanics may not get it right away, and then you play a game of "throw some parts at it" until you have spent a bunch of unnecessary money and time. Well, you get the point here.
Add in knowledgeable sales people to this list as well. We don't pay them enough. We just fail as a business sector and as a culture when we don't value knowledge and skill. Why go into bicycle service work when you can do so many other things that pay more and are related to mechanics? My son is being begged- begged - to quit tech school and take a job running a CNC mill locally for a starting pay of $28.00/hr with benefits. Show me a bicycle mechanic job that starts at that pay grade. Heck, there are barely any tech classes that focus on bicycle mechanic skills in community colleges and tech schools. Why? Because there are no good paying jobs to send graduates to, that's why.
What has to change? Well, for starters we have to end the 'seasonal' nature of bicycle sales, the "fashion" part of bicycle sales, and the "race to technical superiority" that is driven by component companies. What we need to do is to treat bicycles as "durable goods", not "throw-it-away" after a few years type products. Typical life-cycles of bicycles should run 10 to 15 years before anyone needs to replace them. And if we go there, we need to change the prices. Everything would be a LOT more expensive than it is now.
Bicycle purchase prices would have to be such that businesses would make a LOT more profit on them. This would afford them to pay employees and technician more. Service work would reflect the skill and knowledge necessary and that level of work would necessarily have to be done better.
This would do a few things.First, it would make a lot less bicycles available year-to-year. It would keep more bikes running, and out of landfills and junkyards. It would put a focus on sustainability, not new technology. (Example: Who really needs 12 speed stuff anyway?) It would change the perception that bicycles are toys. We could justify alternative infrastructure and alternative means of mobility. Resources could be conserved. It would force design to focus on durability and serviceability, not speed and lightweight at all costs. We could have a flourishing used market that would service low income people with quality used bicycles.
Disruption. Revolution? Something needs to happen. The way the bicycle business does things now just cannot last.
8 comments:
I think part of the issue is that customers are not demanding durable, long serviceable products.
The higher end of the market is favoring aerodynamics, vibration reduction and clean lines more that. And this is why it’s becoming more and more common for bikes to utilize highly proprietary parts, which are made for only a limited time and then unavailable to buy for repairs. For example, many bikes use unique hardware for securing the seat post to enhance the flex. Aero has made more popular internally routed cables, especially those going through the head tube.
Then the low end of the market just favors low price. Increasing prices there just drives more customers into the hands of Walmart and similar.
In the middle, it seems people but a bike once every two or three decades and don’t ride or service them much. Hence the massive demand for new bikes and repairs during the pandemic.
@Nooge - You are describing "business as usual" scenarios. That's not going to be sustainable. Mart bikes are disposable toys, high end bikes are not sustainable from a durability/technological standpoint, and what the market favors is mostly based on perceptions based off those two things.
Fundamental changes will "disrupt" current thinking, perceptions, and probably won't be popular with traditionalists. But again- if we don't look outside the box, we will be an industry that not only has been passed by, but will become extinct as other entities take over. (See my FN&V post in a couple days for one example)
When I left the shop in Mpls in 1996 to come back home to the Black Hills and wrench in a Top 100 shop I told them I needed $10/hr. That is 28 frikkin years ago! The dad of the owner choked and said "we have never paid that much!" I told them they have never hired a turn key mechanic and sales person. I got the money plus bennies AND moving expenses. The problem with the industry has always been folks willing to work for pennies and get the bro deal on a bike. When our Schwinn Rep, Mike S asked what it would take to get me on a Homegrown I told him they should be paying me to ride, sell and promote them, not some token discount.
@Nooge A few years ago I had a Trek Madone and while it was a great bike to ride, doing any kind of maintenance on the thing was a major pain. I accidently rounded the adjustment bolts on the aero brakes and Trek didn't have them in stock anywhere. I finally found a shop in England that was selling them and at great cost had them shipped to me. Now this was while the rim brake Madone was still in production, I can't imagine trying to find those bolts now a few years on let alone in the future if someone is trying to restore a Madone. That experience has definitely changed my priorities in what I look for in a new bike. I want as few integrated parts as I can get.
I wonder if long-term all this focus on integration will actually come to bite manufacturers because customers and mechanics will get tired of having to disconnect brakes and mech cables and take headset bearings out just to swap a stem and/or a handlebar. At some point is it worth all the integration if it takes hours to do what was once a pretty simple task? I wonder if at some point a bike manufacture will release a new bike that doesn't have any integration at all and they will task the marketing team with convincing customers that the lack of integration is a new "feature" and the "future" of the industry and everything will come full circle.
@Daniel - Much of the "integration" of parts, (see internal routing, one-peice stem/handlebars) is driven by fashion. The end product looks cleaner, sleeker, and is more marketable to the eye. Yes- their is an aerodynamic gain here and there, but largely this all has to do with modern sensibilities and perceptions of what is aesthetically "good looking".
We can go all the way back to integrated head sets and aero brake levers for the roots of this, but it really took hold once practically everything followed the look and feel of Apple products in the 2000's. They were held to be aesthetic design icons and if you could make your product exude the feel of an Apple product in terms of delivery and end product, well you were going to sell a ton of product. Now consumers have been trained to kind of expect this look. Even electric cars and trucks look like Apple had a hand in their design.
Anyway, that's my take on that. An industrial design expert may correct me here, but all this mechanical integration on bicycles is partially driven by current day aesthetics, in my view.
Very insightful as usual GT, you make a lot of important points. One thing I keep wondering about: yes, wages for mechanics are low, but then why do repair costs keep skyrocketing? Services that were relatively inexpensive now seems astronomical, and I know for a fact that many shops in my area haven't had major increases in rent, and wages paid to employees have been flat. Even if this doesn't affect me much (I do most of my own repairs) I still wonder where all the money is going?
Re. non-integrated parts that last longer and are user serviceable: I'm not holding my breath. There are niche companies that do this (SKF square taper bottom brackets guaranteed for 10 years/50k miles), but this far from what the mainstream market is pushing. It might help if brands promoted more people repairing their own bikes, but then their dealer repair profits would evaporate--it's a little like auto manufacturers promoting people to fix their own cars.
@Owen - First of all, thank you for those comments and questions. Thank you for taking the time to respond and read the post as well.
Service prices have gone up as other revenue streams for bicycle shops has been eroding. For instance, much of the small, day-to-day parts sales have evaporated. Now customers are getting these things off the internet. Meanwhile, clothing, other apparel, accessories, and even car racks are all being purchased more and more direct from manufacturers, or from various third party vendors online. (Amazon, Alibaba, Ebay, etc)
These revenue streams were once all within the domain of the independent bicycle shop. No longer- So revenues have to be derived from other segments of the business, like service. In other words, the transferring of cash flow from one or more segments of the business are now being shouldered by Service, and that means employees don't see that wage increase you might expect.
Thinking about bicycles, where many of you might think the money is made, well, even there profit margins are being squeezed. It used to be that the bike cost "X" and you added 40% of that to your price. Cost of doing business is then deducted from that, and if you netted out at +10% over costs you were doing well. However, just based upon pure bicycle sales, many companies would be losing money after figuring in handling costs, storage of bicycles (that floor space those boxes sit on costs money), unwrapping the product and disposal of those wrappers, cable ties, etc, and then the building of the bike including tuning and preparations for show floor sales. Add in salesperson's salaries, cost to keep the lights on, etc......
Now think about this: Margin now is often 30% which is where you have to start with business expenditures listed above. Don't forget, you have to pay for the inventory also. Did I mention taxes?
Anyway, that's the long way around to tell you that service prices go up due to necessity of keeping the lights on, and then that may not be enough in this business model. Again- this is a broken business model and is in desperate need of overhaul. It needs to be done completely differently than it is now.
An example I can think of where some out-of-the-box thinking has led to a successful business venture where - on the surface of it, the thing smacks of madness, is HebTroCo of the U.K. Imagine a business plan to sell $170.00 jeans made entirely in the U.K. Sounds daft, doesn't it? Well, they've been around for several years and keep growing. https://hebtro.co
That's the sort of upheaval the cycling industry needs to survive.
Interesting--that was my suspicion re. service costs, but it's good to have it confirmed by an insider who's lived this stuff day to day. I think the HebTroCo model you reference is to some extent already happening. There's the proliferation of custom builders, both US-based and in other countries, some better than others, but I think their popularity speaks to the same consumer impulse as those UK made jeans.
Also, I live in Marin County, and in the last 10 years we've had a few high end boutique "bicycle studios" open--small shops that cater to very well-healed customers (we're near SF and the demographics support it). Think very high end frames, custom spec'd and fit for the customer, builds that can easily run $6-12k. They might have a few city/e-bikes on the floor just for fun, but their bread and butter is serving the high end market. There's nothing wrong with this of course, but it does feel elitist and not always welcoming, definitely not the "neighborhood bike shop" from days of old. In that respect it's disappointing because I do feel beginner cyclists need somewhere to start, a shop that will encourage them in the right ways and not sell them an $8k carbon whatever when they may not need one. The one exception here is Mike Varley at Black Mountain, in addition to selling his own frames he's also a master mechanic and will work on just about anything--even your kid's BMX bike--no questions asked.
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