What Will The "Post-Gravel" Era Look Like?

A week or so ago N.Y. Roll asked a question during the recording of the "Guitar Ted Podcast" concerning the post-gravel era when he said, "Are we seeing the end of the Age of Gravel?" 

I found that question to be particularly intriguing. I am a strong believer that there are the beginnings and endings of things. Sometimes you see a cyclical, rise and fall, thing happening with trends and styles, but mainly, it is more of a beginning, middle period, and an ending. 

N.Y. Roll also mentioned in our latest recording (which you can listen to HERE) that we may not know when we are off the "peak of gavel" until after about three years, in his estimation. Hmm..... Okay. Let's assume that's about right for argument's sake. 

In the beginnings of this "Modern Day Gravel" era, we didn't have anything "gravel specific" at all. N.Y. Roll likes to say that we were in a "discovery phase" back then, and I cannot say he's wrong about that. So, it is easy to say we were at "the beginning" then, right? 

Then we had a period of growth, events came on line, more people were showing up to these events and then the cycling industry kicked into gear with gravel specific things about ten years ago now. People became less and less reliant on "self-discovery" and more and more it became an experience you "bought into". Things that were once a conundrum, (how to set up non-tubeless touring tires as tubeless, route discovery, bike choice) were now on a checklist to be procured at your local bike shop or online retailer. 

There were "bucket-list" events, Pros started showing up, prize money went up, and big corporations came in like Life Time Fitness, and even the highest form of competitive bicycle racing has a "world championships". Social media is flooded with gravel-this, gravel that to the point that it becomes white noise. 

"Peak Gravel" anyone?

There isn't anywhere else for "gravel" to go once it permeates everything.

I would submit that , yes, we have reached "Peak Gravel". When the genre has nowhere else to go in terms of reach, well....you are there, my friend!

So, I think it is safe to say that now we're on the backside of gravel cycling's growth curve. How will that look? Well, I think that in terms of cycling, we are in a depressed state, economically, right now. So, it is hard to say with any clarity what will happen right now without another form of cycling to come in and fill the void which will be left as gravel cycling declines in popularity. 

And make no mistake, gravel cycling cannot continue to grow forever, and it won't reach a plateau and stay there either. Evidence is all around us right now that supports this theory. People are selling gravel bikes and stating that they don't ride them, or that the niche of gravel is not for them. Sure....you are going to have that with any type of cycling. I understand that, but you gotta figure that the amount of folks that bought a gravel bike that are selling them off now have a certain element within that subgroup that came out a bit disillusioned with gravel cycling.  

Image courtesy of the Flint Hills Ultra Gravel Tour

There are splinters off the gravel scene proper which also may give us some clues as to what people will gravitate toward in the future. One of those activities is "touring/bikepacking". (Same thing?) Routes are popping up that cater to the gravel cyclist that can be done in a weekend or over several weeks and everything in between. Sites like Gravel Kansas are being populated with curated routes that have a story and historically significant landmarks to discover. I suspect that other states and counties may follow suit with this idea.

We even talked about this on the latest "Guitar Ted Podcast" with Bryan Hansel, a landscape photographer that lives in Northern Minnesota. He discovered an off-road vehicle route being proposed by the Minnesota DNR and went ahead and rode it recently. "Adventure by Bike", a concept initiated by Jason Boucher at Salsa Cycles, may actually make headway as an "alternative gravel style" via bikepacking routes across various states. 

Of course, traditional forms of cycling could certainly make comebacks. I feel that mountain biking is due for a bit of a renaissance. Same for road cycling, but on a much less popular stage due to the inherent risks involving motor vehicle/distracted driver issues. 

Those are my thoughts, but what about you? Have we reached "Peak Gravel"? What will be the "post-gravel" cycling form of choice? Let me know in the comments. 

Thanks for reading Guitar Ted Productions.